Days after suspected Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) terrorists attacked Kasese district and killed more than 42 students of Lubhiriha Secondary School, top security experts have weighed in and predicated that more deadly attacks will continue happening and a number of Ugandans are likely to lose their lives and properties.

Because of the security experts’ opinion, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has directed more deployment in Kasese and the surrounding districts.

The execution of this directive but top army leadership has been confirmed by Brig. Gen. Felix Kulayigye, the UPDF spokesperson.

In his directive, Museveni noted that the army is not going to pull out of Mwalika Valley where they are hunting for an Arab, a one Abua-Kasi who replaced ADF commanders Mulaalo and Amigo Kibirige.

Mulaalo and Amigo were put out of action.

However, highly placed sources in the country’s intelligence organisations have intimated to theGrapevine that when Sheikh Musa Baluku took over ADF command, after Sheikh Jamil Kyagulanyi Mukulu, the founding commander was arrested in Tanzania in 2015, he reshuffled the entire ADF command system.

The sources said that Mukulu’s arrest brought division in ADF top command especially among the external wing which included the terrorist group’s funders in countries like United Kingdom and America who preferred Mukulu’s son Hassan Nyanzi as his replacement.

Nyanzi is currently in the United Kingdom and is among the ADF fighters who received president Museveni’s pardon but sources claim he spent a number of months in Kampala before secretly sneaking out of the country to go back to the United Kingdom.

Sources divulged that ADF commanders in the bush are very sure that Mukulu’s arrest was as a result of betrayal after some of his colleagues accused him of secretly working with some people in president Museveni’s government.

Those accusing Mukulu also added that by the time of his arrest, he was seeking for avenues to negotiate with Museveni so that he is left to peacefully come back to Uganda.

“He was tired of being a fugitive. Even though he was getting a lot of money from his funders, he wanted to spend the rest of his time on earth with his family, especially his mother, the late Aisha Nakiyemba who died last year,” the source disclosed.

The source added, “But Sheikh Baluku’s men also wanted to kill him after accusing him of abandoning the struggle and using ADF funds given to him to facilitate the war to enrich himself. That’s why he owns a number of apartments in London near Arsenal football club stadium, Manchester city also in United KIngdom, Nairobi in Kenya and in Tanzania.”

Sources added that Mukulu’s son Nyanzi at some time wanted to use ADF command as a tool to negotiate his father’s release from prison and plead with President Museveni to withdraw all terrorism, murder, attempted murder, treason charges slapped on him.

Joseph Tamale Mirundi, the senior presidential advisor on media claims that upon Mukulu’s arrest from Tanzania, from where he was transported back to Uganda, his men sent threatening messages to President Museveni’s ministers that if their boss is killed, they were also going to hunt them and cut off their heads.

He explained that it was the reason why Museveni’s government slowed down on the speedy prosecution of Mukulu at the Crimes War Division of the High Court in Kampala to save his government officials especially ministers.

Back in the ADF camp, after Mukulu’s capture, Sheikh Baluku dismantled all Mukulu’s connections and cells in Uganda by sending his henchmen who killed Mukulu’s men in Uganda.

Sources revealed that the new terrorism cells which Brig. Gen. Christopher Sserunjogi Ddamulira, the police’s Director for Crime Intelligence and Maj. Gen. James Birungi, the commandant of the Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence are dismantling are being established by Sheikh Baluku.

Sources said that sheikh Baluku has secured a lot of funds from international terrorist organisations like ISIS and that’s why recruitment in the country is very high.

They added that Sheikh Baluku has even changed the tactics his people are using to execute their operations.

They are putting much of their efforts in recruiting women, young girls and boys to establish a strong base in the country especially in congested parts of the city suburbs.

Charles Rwomushana, a celebrated security expert told theGrapevine that fighting urban terrorism is very difficult, expensive and very deadly.

Rwomushana warns President Museveni to be very careful and prepared for bloody fights.

Edgar Tabaro, a city lawyer practicing with KTA Advocates, who is also an authority on security in East and Central Africa says that even though President Museveni signed an agreement with his Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) counterpart Felix Tshisekedi to cooperate in the fight against ADF terrorists operating in DRC forests under Shujaa military operation, it will be very difficult to completely finish terrorist attacks on Uganda and other neighbouring countries.

He acknowledged that many of the ADF camps were destroyed by UPDF military attacks but they are still operating and receiving command from their operation command centre named Command Sector 6.

He added that ADF has a wide network which they use to guide their operations and they are operating in small groups which helps them to execute their missions and targets.

He reveals that like other terrorists groups, ADF are mostly embedded in the community because they mastered the behaviour and community language which works to their advantage in understanding their targets.

“Terrorism is a major problem presently and it calls for not only military vigilance but also community vigilance. And we have many sleeper terrorism cells even in Kampala city and in other cities countrywide. They are now embedded within the political elites who believe that the only way to remove President Museveni is militarily. Terror attacks help them to advance their agenda,” he says.

Tabaro adds that the characteristics of the newly recruited terrorists are easy to observe.

“If they are just from deep in the bush after training, and have just come to city centers to execute their assignments, they adopt the spending habits. They always book expensive lodges so lodge owners should be very careful to document people coming to their facilities. They should show them their identity cards, if not, they should alert security to avoid bloodshed. We need cooperation and interaction between the community and military because that will guide security in establishing terrorist hideouts.”

He explains that terrorists have changed their tactics and the purpose of abduction is for recruitment of new fighters.

And for young girls and women, they abduct them because terrorists have high sexual demands.

He adds that when these terrorists come to cities, they spend much of the money given to them for operations on buying sex workers because they don’t have access to women in bushes where they are trained from.

So when they come to cities, they spend much of their time at places where sex workers operate.

He adds that because of the money given to them by their bosses during operations, terrorists spend a lot of this money on young girls who are of school going age to have sex with them, lure women into love affairs and buy prostitutes who they later use as spies.

He warns parents and school administrators to be very careful with the movements of their children because they can be recruited in terrorism activities.

He further notes that the reason why in the western world, like the United States of America and United Kingdom, governments always passes out warnings on terrorist attacks is because of modern intelligence technology which they use to do surveillance on terrorist movements,  intercept their communications to establish their operations.

He contends that the Americans even have access to satellite images of the movements of the terrorists that’s why Uganda should always take these warnings serious.

Al-Hajji Sadam Gayira, the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) president told theGrapevine that terrorism is a world problem especially at this time when super power countries are fighting each other.

Gayira says this is going to fuel insecurity in Africa.

He adds that the infighting among super power countries is going to increase the number of warlords in Africa with places to govern like what is going on in DRC.

He explains that countries like the United States, United Kingdom who have been helping Uganda and other African countries in the fight against terrorism are currently shifting their interest to the Ukraine-Russia war.

Gayira says that America and his allies are very bitter with Uganda, in particular president Museveni for his decision to side with Russia even though he claims to be neutral and such misunderstanding will give terrorists space to operate in Uganda and Africa.

He adds that America knows very well that it is fighting China, India, Brazil, South Africa and understands that the Ukraine war will determine the future of the dollar as the world’s currency and its status as the world’s super power and that’s why it is no longer thinking about Africa.

He predicts that the western world is likely to support terrorist groups operating in unfriendly countries as America did in Syria when they supported ISIS terrorists because they were covering their interests in Middle East countries.

“I cannot condemn our security that they slept on the job over what happened in Kasese because the problem is very bigger than what meets the eye. I’m advising Ugandans to be prepared  for the worse as super powers focus less on values of democracy, fighting terrorism, corruption in developing countries because they are concentrating on fighting for super power status,” Gayira states.

Rwomushana, a former operative with the country’s Internal Security Organisation (ISO) articulates that the war between President Museveni and ADF is historical, and it can be traced from the days of Amos Bazira.

Rwomushana says that Bazira was a strong person in Rwenzori and was an intelligence officer in Dr. Milton Obote’s government by the time President Museveni was in full fight to take over Obote’s government.

He adds that Bazira was killed in Nairobi Kenya under suspicious circumstances and his people especially in Rwenzori Mountains were not convinced because he was their commander in fight to stop Museveni from accessing the Rwezururu Mountains.

He says that upon Bazira’s death, his war with Museveni secretly turned deadly and tribal which resulted in a number of people being imprisoned and others killed.

He explained that during its infancy, a number of people in ADF came from Busoga and Ankole region with the agenda of overthrowing President Museveni’s government but they were defeated and Museveni security later branded them as people from Rwenzori.

He insists that Museveni’s army smashed ADF and the ongoing attacks are well known to President Museveni’s deep state and very soon Ugandans will know the truth.

He advises President Museveni to put his son, who is also the senior presidential advisor on operation in the control of the army even though he has little capacity to control what is coming.

“People are going to die like those killed in Kasese but the big question is what will happen when Museveni’s enemies gain more powers like what is going on in Sudan because currently, you cannot see the enemies, they tactically do not talk, that’s why Museveni’s security is giving false information to public,” Rwomushana opines.

However, Brig. Gen. Felix Kulayigye, the UPDF spokesperson insists that the country’s security is under control and ADF is no longer a threat that’s why they lost even their main agenda of capturing power.

However, President Museveni placed the ongoing attacks on UPDF especially last month’s attack on UPDF’s Bulo Mureer base in Somalia by Al-Shabab terrorists on corruption in the army.

He revealed that the army leadership are money minded that’s why they deploy incompetent soldiers like cooks, their personal assistants and secretaries to go and fight Al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia.

By Sengooba Alirabaki