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    OPINION: Museveni Is Tired! He Has Grown Old And Run Out Of Ideas, Bobi Wine is Now Using The Same Strategy M7 Used Against Obote – Mwenda…

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    Bobi Wine’s Rollercoaster Campaign.

    I have just been re-reading President Yoweri Museveni’s 1981 masterpiece on why he chose a protracted armed struggle to fight the government of Milton Obote. It provides an incredible insight into how a weak group can employ its weaknesses as strengths and turn the strengths of a powerful oppressive state into handicaps. It is incredible how, even without strategic planning, Bobi Wine is using the same strategy successfully against Museveni.

    Over the last month, Bobi Wine has created a rollercoaster campaign. He has positioned himself as an underdog fighting an entrenched dictatorship. To many young Ugandans suffering from anxiety over the future: whether employed, underemployed or unemployed, he has a simple but powerful message: “I am fighting for your freedom; all of you have to become freedom fighters to fight for your freedom. Some of us will die but it will be for the greater cause.”

    This message is resonating with many young people in urban and semi urban areas who clearly see him as their hero, and who also think this “freedom” is a solution to their anxiety. Bobi Wine is short on policy and strategy, but he is sincere with his feelings, which resonate with this segment of our population. He is unlikely to win this election (even if it were free and fair) for reasons I will discuss another day. But for now he is the cool new kid on the block.

    Here is Museveni’s real dilemma: Bobi Wine has branded him a dictator and needs proof. Bobi Wine has, without premeditation, lured Museveni into a series of street battles where more than 100 people have been killed. This slaughter has been captured live on social media, the platform where Bobi Wine’s base dominate. So he has provoked a powerful enemy in control of the state to use arbitrary violence to prove his accusations of dictatorship. This is exactly what Museveni did to Obote in Luwero.

    In the aforementioned article, Museveni argues that a guerrilla movement should undermine a government’s credibility and legitimacy in both the domestic and international arena. By provoking state security forces to kill civilians, Bobi Wine is achieving exactly that. Yet Museveni is not acting differently from how he has handled previous opponents, armed or pacific. Indeed, the NRM/A was much more uncouth and violent in its early years than today.

    Bobi Wine’s success at branding Museveni has been due to three factors: the presence of new technologies of social mobilization (social media), the decay of ideological commitment within NRM (death of siasa) and the collapse of the structures of demobilisation and counter mobilisation NRM used to have. The old grizzly bear (NRM) may not be defeated in this battle by the upstart Bobi Wine but its reputation has been grievously wounded.

    For all its great achievements, NRM has failed to master social media. This is not because it does not see its value but because it is ideologically exhausted; lacks committed cadres with passion to tell its story. I meet young people with such passion for NRM and Museveni. But they are ignored or side lined because the core has been captured by self-seeking elites looking for the next big job or deal. Museveni can pour billions at this problem but cash cannot replace ideology as a basis for generating mass enthusiasm. Siasa needs a faith.

    The longer Museveni has ruled, the more authority has shifted to him individually. Today this authority is transmitted from him through a small circle of close family and kin. There are no longer many people around him who are not family but who can exercise the influence people like Eriya Kategaya, James Wapakabhulo, Bidandi Ssali, Amanya Mushega, Kahinda Otafiire, Jim Muhwezi, Kale Kayihura, Amama Mbabazi, Noble Mayombo did. This is why the president’s campaign is movie staring Museveni alone.

    Hence there is internal paralysis and inertia inside the president’s campaign and even the wider government. Everyone waits for “Mzee” to make decisions. But Museveni has grown old. He is now low on energy and zest. He often postpones attending to critical issues because he is over burdened and exhausted. Thus many issues in need of urgent attention remain unaddressed because there is no one to carry the ball down. His own style and approach makes matters worse. Museveni has little interest in young people. He finds them impatient and reckless.

    It is in this context that Bobi Wine has surprised the system. The way he has rolled out his campaign across all the districts he has visited shows that he had been grossly underestimated, including by me. The system lacks the political and security smarts to handle him, hence the arbitrary use of violence. So the biggest coverage of elections is not what the president is great at (public policy) which Bobi Wine is intellectually handicapped at, but the violence and brutality government has unleashed on this singer turned politician.

    The NRM is unable to change its ways because it has governed Uganda for 35 years using particular methods, which have served it well. However, Uganda has radically changed: its economy, the population, the level of education and exposure and its lifestyle and attitudes. Bobi Wine is a representative of this change. The previous candidates against Museveni came from the old political order (Paul Ssemogerere, Sebana Kizito) or from Museveni’s own camp (Kizza Besigye). NRM knew how to handle them. But they are clueless on how to handle Bobi Wine.

    So the people in charge of the system are using old ways to cope with an entirely new phenomenon. And this is at a time when they have suffered deep institutional atrophy, terrible loss of energy, passion and morale, and a grievous decline in faith in their mission. The NRM has degenerated into a cash and carry party. Without faith in its mission, it no longer seeks to persuade but to bribe and/or coarse. This explains the retreat to violence as the one and only tool.

    Now Bobi Wine is doing something politically dangerous: he is demonstrating actual power. He travels in a convoy of over 30 vehicles, hundreds of boda bodas, and an army of hundreds of people, who provide a human shield around him. His convoy is larger and seemingly more powerful than that of Museveni. It closes the entire highway turning it into a one-way road as police watch helplessly, often just escorting him. This projects him as a president in waiting. No one should loose sight of the symbolic significance of this especially among our peasant population.

    To stop this momentum, government arrested him for violating electoral campaign SOPs, sparking widespread riots and deaths. He was released on bail on a clear condition that he should respect the SOPs. Since then he has been defying them with impunity, and government seems afraid of enforcing the bail conditions. Essentially Bobi Wine has placed himself above the law, and police seem unable to handle him, well because the matter is political. Bobi Wine may not be an existential threat to the NRM and Museveni’s power. But for now he is, without doubt, a strategic threat.

    The writer, Andrew Mwenda is a veteran investigative journalist, Political analyst and founder/owner of The Independent News Magazine.

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    NATIONAL

    Bobi Wine Declines To Meet Troubled MP Lumu Concerning His Amendment Involving Electing LoP…

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    NUP leader Bobi Wine and MP Richard Lumu (inset)

    Controversial Mityana South legislator Richard Kizito Lumu is stranded waiting for feedback from the leadership of the National Unity Platform (NUP) over his prayer to meet them to get their view concerning his proposal to amend the Parliament’s Administration Bill 2024.

    Lumu was told by the Speaker Annet Anita Among to proceed with his amendments and he was given leave to draft and table the bill where he is seeking to amend Parliament’s Administration Act  which among others seeks to change the method of choosing the Leader of Opposition in Parliament.

    Lumu wants the LOP to be voted by the entire opposition MPs and not the leader of the leading opposition party in the country.

    Lumu also wants the Deputy Speaker of parliament to be elected from members of opposition and the number of opposition parliamentary commissioners to be increased from one to two among others.

    Lumu confirmed that he notified all opposition political parties which have legislators in parliament in writing seeking for their audience to collect their views on his proposals before he presents it on the floor of parliament for the first reading.

    Last week, Lumu met the leadership of UPC.

    He added that this week, he is going to meet other opposition political parties even though the leadership of NUP declined to reply him.

    He adds that he doesn’t know whether to meet their leadership at their party headquarters at Makerere Kavule in Kawempe Division or at the home of their party president Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine).

    However, Alex Mufumbiro the NUP deputy spokesperson noted that they don’t have time for Lumu given that they have a lot of issues to deal with especially liberating Ugandans from president Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s alleged bad leadership.

    He explained that if Lumu really wants their input in his controversial bill, he would have first met them before presenting it to parliament.

    Recently, theGrapevine reported that Bobi Wine claimed that Lumu is being used by President Museveni and speaker Among to weaken the opposition and deny Ugandans right to elect their president.

    He predicted that after the passing the Lumu bill on electing the LOP, his next assignment will be to produce a bill giving parliament powers to elect the president.

     

    By Hadijjah Namagembe

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    CRIME

    Top City Tycoons, UETCL Bosses In Trouble Over Shs28.8bn Illegal Compensation Deal…

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    UETCL CEO Joshua Karamagi (C) and his deputy Eng. Richard Matsiko (R) whose staff are under investigation from IGG Betty Kamya (bottom L) following Minister Mayanja's report (top L)

    The Inspector General of Government (IGG) Beti Namisango Kamya has kicked off investigation into allegation that top city tycoons connived with Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited (UETCL) to benefit from Shs28.8bn illegal compensation from President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s government.

    The development resulted from a requested letter from Dr Sam Mayanja the State Minister for Lands in the Ministry of Lands Housing and Urban Development claiming that the land where government compensated the tycoons is public land hence they fraudulently obtained the land titles they used to secure the deal.

    Mayanja revealed to the IGG that he has done preliminary investigation into the allegations and establish that the tycoons secured the land titles registered on: LRV 4143 Folio 2 Plot 14, LRV 4143 Folio 3 Plot 16, KCCA 3741, Folio 19 Plot 12A, LRV 4144 Folio 7 Plot 28-40,  LRV 4139 Folio 13, Plot 8, LRV 4130 Folio 14, Plot 41, Volume KCCA 232 Folio 21, Plot 1-4. 5-7, and 8-11 and LRV 4149 Folio 15 Plots 18-26 and 10-12 fraudulently after learning that the government was going to pass the Namanve-Luzira 132 KV transmission through that land.

    Mayanja further claim that the accused tycoons include: Flavia Muntuyera, Asuman Irunga, Delmas Apartments Limited, Prestigious Apartments Limited, Aisha Mulungi, Irene Kwera and to his surprise, Muntuyera and Irunga had been listed twice which means they had benefited twice.

    Mayanja also revealed that he has established that the said tycoons didn’t pay stamp duty when the land titles were made in their respective names.

    In the letter to the IGG, Mayanja said that he has instructed the Commissioner Land Registration to put a caveat on the said land titles in question until the investigations are complete.

    He pleaded with her to also take legal action against all the culprits for causing financial loss to the government.

    However, theGrapevine established that the multibillion transaction resulted from a court suit where the tycoons sued the Attorney General Kiryowa Kiwanuka, UETCL which was represented by K&K Advocates, a law firm where Kiwanuka is a founding partner and the Commissioner Land Registration and all parties entered a settlement to resolve the matter out of court.

    It was agreed that all the plaintiffs agreed to be compensated with Shs28.852bn being full and final settlement on all the claims they had on the land and highly placed sources in the Ministry of Lands confirmed to theGrapevine that the said amount of money was paid to the beneficiaries.

    However, in September 2023, Attorney General Kiwanuka wrote a legal opinion advising that the government should not compensate any land title in a wetland and his advice was directly going to the people who claim that they were affected during the construction of the electricity transmission line along Namanve-Luzira.

    “Section 44 of the Land Act guides us on how we should deal with this land and provides for the control of the environmentally sensitive areas. Therefore, we are of the considered opinion that titles issued in wetlands, including those in lakes after the Land Act Cap 227, are contrary to the law and illegal,” the Attorney General stated.

    theGrapevine has established that the Commission of Inquiry into land matters, Justice Catherine Bamugemereire who was the chairperson of the commission recommended that people who obtained private land titles in Namanve and Luzira wetlands including those in the lake should not be compensated by the government.

     

    By Sengooba Alirabaki

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    NATIONAL

    Pressure On MP Ssemujju Mounts As M7’s NRM And Bobi Wine’s NUP Plot To Kick Him Out Of Kira Municipality…

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    NUP boss Bobi Wine (L) at lawyer George Musisi's home. Inset is MP Ssemujju Nganda

    Highly placed sources in National Unity Platform (NUP) have revealed to theGrapevine that the reason why their party president went to the thanksgiving ceremony organized by his personal lawyer and also human rights activist George Musisi at his Bulindo home was to make sure that the entire Kira Municipality feels his presence in the area.

    Credible sources said that NUP inner circle has already taken a decision to front lawyer Musisi to contest on their card against Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda who has been in parliament since 2011.

    Ssemujju recently told theGrapevine that he will retire from parliamentary politics once President Museveni is defeated thus pouring cold water on rumours that he was going to retire and give other politicians an opportunity to represent the area in parliament.

    Early this year, Musisi told theGrapevine that he was going to contest against Betty Nambooze in Mukono Municipality.

    However, NUP insiders have told theGrapevine that Bobi Wine and his handlers established that it is not the right time to lose Nambooze one of the senior legislators who decided to stomach public attacks from his longtime political comrades like Mathias Mpuuga Nsamba shielding the actions of Bobi Wine in the Shs500 million service award saga.

    Sources added that Ssemujju is in NUP’s black book of MPs who undermine Bobi Wine and he recently faced off with Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro who declared him a hypocrite.

    Sources said that Bobi Wine was briefed that Ssemujju can be defeated if a strong candidate is fronted against him because voters have established that he is among the opposition legislators who have been sealing multibillion deals with members of the DEEP STATE.

    “You have seen how Ssemujju shields Mpuuga concerning the Shs500m scandal. He has been demeaning our party president that he was misled by our Leader of Opposition in Parliament Joel Ssenyonyi. He said that he cannot sign any document that is against Mpuuga because of their friendship. But when it comes to Museveni, he roasts him like nothing; that kind of person cannot be a leader,” a source who is a top decision maker in NUP said.

    He added that voters see Ssemujju as a very conservative leader because he doesn’t even allow them to enter his home.

    He placed a tent near his home and whoever wants to see him waits for him from that tent.

    However, Ssemujju said that he was in a good life even before joining politics, his wife Faridah Ssemujju was driving a good car and his children were studying in good schools and even if he leaves parliament, his life will not change.

    Sources said that at first Bobi Wine and his people were planning to front real estate dealer Jimmy Lukwago who was was defeated by Ssemujju in 2021 elections because Bobi Wine’s brother Eddy Yawe had already declared his interest to contest for Wakiso district chairperson yet their secong option, Kira Municipality mayor Julius Mutebi, was still interested in contesting for the same position he is occupying.

    Sources in Lukwago’s camp are aware of the development at Makerere Kavule where the headquarters of NUP are situated and it is the reason why their man has decided to go back to the drawing board.

    But others insiders told us that Lukwago is hiding from voters who have already started asking him for money and he needs money to secure the NUP ticket because he thinks that this time it is going to be more expensive compared to 2021.

    Bobi Wine was briefed that Musisi is very strong and popular in Church of Uganda because he sits on the land committee of Kira Church of Uganda a position he has used to improve the lives of youths and women in Kira.

    Sources added that Musisi is easy to be marketed among the people of Kira municipality because most of them are elites like himself and are tired of the tricks Ssemujju and friends in the opposition in parliament play which costs the taxpayers money.

    Sources said that Bobi Wine was briefed that FDC Najjanankumbi leadership led by Patrick Amuriat and Nathan Nandala Mafabi have been clandestinely mobilizing people from their home areas of Teso and Bugisu who stay in Kira to register and vote from there so that they can use their numbers in the box to defeat Ssemujju.

    President Museveni’s National Resident Movement (NRM) is also on the ground mobilizing political support to force Ssemujju out of Kira and they plan to front a one Isaac Ssenkubuge who is the Bweyogerere Division chairperson.

    theGrapevine has established that strategic meetings for Ssenkubuge are conducted every weekend at Zebra spot hotel near Kira Division police chaired by Mamerito Mugerwa the former Kira Municipality mayor.

    Ssenkubuge confirmed his intentions to contest against Ssemujju explaining that for a long time he has been hoodwinking people that he is in the opposition while silently benefiting from Museveni’s government.

    However other sources said that Mamerito Mugerwa is the one fronting Ssenkubuge and financing his political ambitions to revenge on Ssemujju whom he accused of leading his downfall in 2021 when he contested to become Kira Municipality mayor.

    Mamerito says Ssemujju told voters that he is a thief.

    “Ssemujju told people that Mamerito is a thief who steals water from National Water and Sewerage Corporation. He also told them that he steals the checks that government donates to women groups to fight poverty. He further accused Ssenkubuge of being Mamerito’s barking dog and mouthpiece because by then Mamerito was sick and could not ably speak,” a source said.

    Sources claim that in 2021,  Ssenkubuge was defeated by NUP’s Faruk Muniga, Kkonde who was bankrolled by Ssemujju through FDC came next and Ssenkubuge was in 3rd position.

    Surprisingly, he was declared the winner and Muniga took the matter to Court. Up to now, the matter has not yet been decided.

    Sources said that Ssenkubuge is very sure with such political maneuvers, he is very likely of defeat Ssemujju and Musisi come 2026 parliamentary elections.

    He added that Ssenkubuge got a photograph when President Museveni was in a meeting with Ssemujju’s father Mzee Nganda who is his close friend and a supporter of NRM.

    Ssemujju admitted that his father is a friend to Museveni and one time when Museveni visited the defunct WBS TV to appear on Face the Press talk show moderated by senior political journalist Peter Kibazo, Museveni was very bitter with Ssemujju for attacking his government and family and threatened to report him to his father Nganda.

    However theGrapevine has established that Ssemujju is still strong on ground especially among the elites and Musisi and Ssenkubuge have to work so hard to defeat him.

     

    By Timothy Nyanzi

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