Among the 11 presidential contestants in this year’s general elections, the incumbent president Yoweri Tibuhaburwa Kaguta Museveni expectedly performed better than the other 10 aspirants, and will therefore retain his familiar spot as the president of Uganda, to rule for another 5-year term, after ruling Uganda for the past consecutive 35 years.
There are many reasons to tag to that outcome, but there’s a few of them that stand out, according to our political analysts and these include;
Mobilisation
Without doubt, Mr. Museveni did exceptionally well with groundwork and massive mobilisation. Museveni tactfully covered the biggest part of the country, and reached out to millions of Ugandans as a presidential candidate, which was partly aided by his position as the reigning president.
Even when the campaigns were lawfully banned in speculated COVID-19 high-risk areas, mostly cities and major towns, the president unofficially campaigned in disguise of doing his official duties of commissioning government projects, which was somewhat an act of relevance and a desperate move to ultimately seek favor from the voters who would benefit from the commissioned services.
Unlike his other opponents, Museveni always successfully aired out his views on various broadcast outlets. He passed out so many ads on all various online and print media outlets and made sure his presence was felt everywhere.
The Silent Majority
The silent majority is so real, and it’s a force to reckon with. The biggest mistake any Ugandan opposition politician can do is to ever underestimate the power of Museveni’s loyalists.
It looks on the face of things as though “everyone” hates Museveni, but that’s not the case. Having been president for 35 years, he now has those people who actually love him so much and have repeatedly contributed immensely to their candidate’s success.
They make sure they vote for him, but rarely even go to rallies to show support; they don’t even make a lot of noise when they attend, and when they open their mouth to talk, they only say, “Let’s wait for the election date”.
That huge confidence is a representation of unmatched underground efforts. They are quiet during day when you shout your candidates’ name at your highest voice, but they wake up to mobilize at night, in the dark when their opponents are sleeping. They operate in a typically silent mode.
These are mostly people who have either found comfort in the current setting of life and don’t really desire for any change, or should be directly or indirectly benefiting from Museveni’s regime and can’t afford to sit back and watch it come to an end.
Experience
Experience can beat anything regarding performance on any day. There’s more to winning an election than just commanding a huge fan base, like Bobi Wine the charming musician has always done. In music, numbers mean almost everything, and Bobi Wine knows it very well because he’s experienced there (20 years and more).
The Political utilisation of numbers could somehow differ, and that’s clearly something Bobi Wine who has spent hardly 5 years in Politics will have to learn overtime.
It’s true, the musician pulled the biggest crowds throughout the campaign, most of the times causing him trouble and landing him in jail for some days as well. But it’s not a guarantee that all the people who crowded around him voted for him.
Take another presidential candidate, Katumba for instance, he garnered only 14 votes in an area where he had over 500 people gathered and cheering him at his rally.
Strategy and Infrastructure
Museveni had the best plan towards the elections, and so did he also have the required funds to see his plan through. The execution was close to perfection.
Museveni very well studied the strength of his closest opponent, and encroached on his supposed voters. That as well explains the NRM candidate’s campaign slogan; “Securing Your Future”.
Museveni highly prioritized the youths this time. And his team massively tapped into the youth system through direct recruitment.
Ashburg Katto, Fullfigure, among other such groups of people became so relevant during the whole campaign season. You can argue that maybe they’re not youths but they’re either synonymous or even appealing to the youths.
They’re the ones who had that courage and energy to counterattack Bobi Wine supporters on social media. It’s so true that youths massively voted for Bobi Wine, and it’s also very factual that a great number of them as well voted for the old man with a hat. He managed to convince them, by giving them hope through endless promises.
Inequitable Favors
Museveni was in a competition with already a foot forward. And everything seemed to work in his favor, even the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic that saw the nature of normal campaigns restricted. At least each and every government arm seems to have, in various indirect ways, lent a hand to the “current boss”.
It was for justified reasons, but the Ministry of Health (MoH), the Military and other security agencies among other government organs’ interventions in the electoral process clearly affected the opposition.
The Resident District Commissioners (RDCs) individually intervened to stop some opposition candidates from being hosted on radio stations in some regions.
Police and military arresting and detaining opposition candidates or their allies was for security reasons, but still it greatly affected the opposition camps. Some are still remanded while others died during the campaign trail. As a precautionary health measure, the EC still banned campaigns towards the last days when Bobi Wine was slated to hit hard in his strongest area, the capital city Kampala and the neighbouring towns.
Intimidation
The election was engulfed by intimidation and security threats. Some people mostly the elderly, who make up a good percentage of the voters, were psychologically tortured by the presence of the heavy military deployment, seemingly ready for action. To them, all those mambas and men with guns would swing into immediate full action if anything like change happened. With such a troubled mind, such a group of people must have easily ticked the bus for no other better reason, but for simply no change.
There were also cases of arrest of Bobi Wine polling agents and supporters, the army raiding homes and arresting NUP members, among other cases of intimidation.
Museveni’s Mastery At Winning Elections
Not only was Museveni the oldest in the race, he was also by far the most experienced, and he clearly also possessed the most knowledge on “how to win an election in Uganda by all means”.
The old man is admittedly so cunning. Unlike the incumbent who had stood and won the previous 5 terms before his eventual re-election, all the other 10 presidential candidates, except one, had ever stood for presidency before.
Most of the other aspirants in the race had no clear record of political history whatsoever. People were hearing about a one Mwesigye, Katumba Oyee, Kalembe and even Amuriat or Mayambala for the first time, and as a presidential candidate. That’s all. Even Bobi Wine, the biggest contender, has less than five years in active politics, yet the Old Man with a Hat has been there for decades.
Bobi Wine perhaps has so much to learn about “how to win an election in Uganda by all means”, but Museveni might have seemingly hidden the manual so far away from the reach of “political infants (Bazukulu)”, or he might have read and immediately torn all the papers to keep the vital information away from sneaky people like Dr. Kizza Besigye.
As such, the opposition is highly relating Museveni’s victory to pre-ticked ballots. There are claims of massively pre-ticked ballot papers in favor of the incumbent. The ballots were allegedly ticked in secret at high end security points and guarded premises like army barracks, closely watched over by SFC officials. These were supposedly meant to neutralise the opposition’s strongholds.
According to political pundits, at least around ten thousand of votes would be incorporated into the process to counter the opposition’s big percentage, for instance a purported 90 or 80 would be reduced by a whole 20 to a 70 or 60 percentage respectively, hence coming up with cumulative results that would give the incumbent a landslide victory.
By Baron Kironde
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