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    Why Bobi Wine Didn’t Win Presidential Election: Analysis Of Museveni’s Huge Victory Explained in 7 Simple Steps…

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    Among the 11 presidential contestants in this year’s general elections, the incumbent president Yoweri Tibuhaburwa Kaguta Museveni expectedly performed better than the other 10 aspirants, and will therefore retain his familiar spot as the president of Uganda, to rule for another 5-year term, after  ruling Uganda for the past consecutive 35 years.

    There are many reasons to tag to that outcome, but there’s a few of them that stand out, according to our political analysts and these include;

     

    Mobilisation

    Without doubt, Mr. Museveni did exceptionally well with groundwork and massive mobilisation. Museveni tactfully covered the biggest part of the country, and reached out to millions of Ugandans as a presidential candidate, which was partly aided by his position as the reigning president.

    Even when the campaigns were lawfully banned in speculated COVID-19 high-risk areas, mostly cities and major towns, the president unofficially campaigned in disguise of doing his official duties of commissioning government projects, which was somewhat an act of relevance and a desperate move to ultimately seek favor from the voters who would benefit from the commissioned services.

    Unlike his other opponents, Museveni always successfully aired out his views on various broadcast outlets. He passed out so many ads on all various online and print media outlets and made sure his presence was felt everywhere.

     

    The Silent Majority

    The silent majority is so real, and it’s a force to reckon with. The biggest mistake any Ugandan opposition politician can do is to ever underestimate the power of Museveni’s loyalists.

    It looks on the face of things as though “everyone” hates Museveni, but that’s not the case. Having been president for 35 years, he now has those people who actually love him so much and have repeatedly contributed immensely to their candidate’s success.

    They make sure they vote for him, but rarely even go to rallies to show support; they don’t even make a lot of noise when they attend, and when they open their mouth to talk, they only say, “Let’s wait for the election date”.

    That huge confidence is a representation of unmatched underground efforts. They are quiet during day when you shout your candidates’ name at your highest voice, but they wake up to mobilize at night, in the dark when their opponents are sleeping. They operate in a typically silent mode.

    These are mostly people who have either found comfort in the current setting of life and don’t really desire for any change, or should be directly or indirectly benefiting from Museveni’s regime and can’t afford to sit back and watch it come to an end.

     

    Experience

    Experience can beat anything regarding performance on any day. There’s more to winning an election than just commanding a huge fan base, like Bobi Wine the charming musician has always done. In music, numbers mean almost everything, and Bobi Wine knows it very well because he’s experienced there (20 years and more).

    The Political utilisation of numbers could somehow differ, and that’s clearly something Bobi Wine who has spent hardly 5 years in Politics will have to learn overtime.

    It’s true, the musician pulled the biggest crowds throughout the campaign, most of the times causing him trouble and landing him in jail for some days as well. But it’s not a guarantee that all the people who crowded around him voted for him.

    Take another presidential candidate, Katumba for instance, he garnered only 14 votes in an area where he had over 500 people gathered and cheering him at his rally.

     

    Strategy and Infrastructure

    Museveni had the best plan towards the elections, and so did he also have the required funds to see his plan through. The execution was close to perfection.

    Museveni very well studied the strength of his closest opponent, and encroached on his supposed voters. That as well explains the NRM candidate’s campaign slogan; “Securing Your Future”.

    Museveni highly prioritized the youths this time. And his team massively tapped into the youth system through direct recruitment.

    Ashburg Katto, Fullfigure, among other such groups of people became so relevant during the whole campaign season. You can argue that maybe they’re not youths but they’re either synonymous or even appealing to the youths.

    They’re the ones who had that courage and energy to counterattack Bobi Wine supporters on social media. It’s so true that youths massively voted for Bobi Wine, and it’s also very factual that a great number of them as well voted for the old man with a hat. He managed to convince them, by giving them hope through endless promises.

     

    Inequitable Favors

    Museveni was in a competition with already a foot forward. And everything seemed to work in his favor, even the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic that saw the nature of normal campaigns restricted. At least each and every government arm seems to have, in various indirect ways, lent a hand to the “current boss”.

    It was for justified reasons, but the Ministry of Health (MoH), the Military and other security agencies among other government organs’ interventions in the electoral process clearly affected the opposition.

    The Resident District Commissioners (RDCs) individually intervened to stop some opposition candidates from being hosted on radio stations in some regions.

    Police and military arresting and detaining opposition candidates or their allies was for security reasons, but still it greatly affected the opposition camps. Some are still remanded while others died during the campaign trail. As a precautionary health measure, the EC still banned campaigns towards the last days when Bobi Wine was slated to hit hard in his strongest area, the capital city Kampala and the neighbouring towns.

     

    Intimidation

    The election was engulfed by intimidation and security threats. Some people mostly the elderly, who make up a good percentage of the voters, were psychologically tortured by the presence of the heavy military deployment, seemingly ready for action. To them, all those mambas and men with guns would swing into immediate full action if anything like change happened. With such a troubled mind, such a group of people must have easily ticked the bus for no other better reason, but for simply no change.

    There were also cases of arrest of Bobi Wine polling agents and supporters, the army raiding homes and arresting NUP members, among other cases of intimidation.

     

    Museveni’s Mastery At  Winning Elections

    Not only was Museveni the oldest in the race, he was also by far the most experienced, and he clearly also possessed the most knowledge on “how to win an election in Uganda by all means”.

    The old man is admittedly so cunning. Unlike the incumbent who had stood and won the previous 5 terms before his eventual re-election, all the other 10 presidential candidates, except one, had ever stood for presidency before.

    Most of the other aspirants in the race had no clear record of political history whatsoever. People were hearing about a one Mwesigye, Katumba Oyee, Kalembe and even Amuriat or Mayambala for the first time, and as a presidential candidate. That’s all. Even Bobi Wine, the biggest contender, has less than five years in active politics, yet the Old Man with a Hat has been there for decades.

    Bobi Wine perhaps has so much to learn about “how to win an election in Uganda by all means”, but Museveni might have seemingly hidden the manual so far away from the reach of “political infants (Bazukulu)”, or  he might have read and immediately torn all the papers to keep the vital information away from sneaky people like Dr. Kizza Besigye.

    As such, the opposition is highly relating Museveni’s victory to pre-ticked ballots. There are claims of massively pre-ticked ballot papers in favor of the incumbent. The ballots were allegedly ticked in secret at high end security points and guarded premises like army barracks, closely watched over by SFC officials. These were supposedly meant to neutralise the opposition’s strongholds.

    According to political pundits, at least around ten thousand of votes would be incorporated into the process to counter the opposition’s big percentage, for instance a purported 90 or 80 would be reduced by a whole 20 to a 70 or 60 percentage respectively, hence coming up with cumulative results that would give the incumbent a landslide victory.

     

    By Baron Kironde

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    POLITICS

    Eyes On The Ball! Never Lose Sight Of Our Mission, Nor Be Discouraged By The Challenges That Will Come Our Way, Bobi Wine Tells Supporters

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    The National Unity Platform – NUP Party President – Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu alias Bobi Wine – has appealed to his supporters not to lose hope.

    “We remain hopeful and determined to continue our struggle for a brighter future for all Uganans,” reads part of Bobi’s new year message delivered Sunday.

    As we begin 2023, Bobi says “I wanted to take a moment to thank each and every one of you for your continued support and dedication to our cause.”

    “Along the way this past year, your belief in our common vision for a better, more just and equal Uganda has been a constant source of motivation and inspiration for us. 2022 has been a challenging year, filled with both triumphs and setbacks. Many comrades including Jakana Nadduli have lost their lives for criticizing the regime. Denis Waiswa and Yakubu Kiggundu died in the line of duty. John Ddamulira, Semuddu Michael and Muhammad Kanatta disappeared and remain missing to date. Hon. Ssewanyana, Hon. Ssegirinya and comrade Olivia Lutaaya spent their second successive New Year’s Eve in jail. But through it all, we have remained committed to our fight for justice, freedom and democracy. We have stood firm in the face of intimidation and persecution, and have continued to raise our voices against corruption, abuse of power and the suppression of human rights.”

    According to Bobi, he is particularly inspired by the courage and determination of “our youth.” “Despite bearing the brunt of the regime’s brutality, you have stood up for what you believe in and have not been afraid to speak out against injustice. Your voices remain a major driving force behind our cause, and I am proud to stand alongside you in this fight. As we look ahead to 2023, we remain hopeful and determined to continue our struggle for a brighter future for all Ugandans.”

    Bobi acknowledges that “the road ahead will not be easy” but notes that “with your support and solidarity, we will keep fighting for the change that we know is possible.”

    Therefore, he said: “let us continue to work together and keep the fire burning in our hearts.”

    “Let us never lose sight of our mission, nor be discouraged by the challenges that will come our way. We are in this together.”

     

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    POLITICS

    My Time Is Up, Dr. Kizza Besigye Speaks Out On Quitting Active Politics: Says 2026 Won’t Be Any Magical Because M7 Is The Electoral Commission

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    Four-time Presidential candidate, Col RTD Dr. Kizza Besigye has for the first time hinted at retiring from active politics.Dr. Besigye ha been in the country’s political scene since 2001 and has contested for Presidency in 2001, 2006, 2011 and in 2016. The former opposition Forum for Democratic Change – FDC Party President was Friday speaking at a memorial service for the Busiro South MP late John Patrick Musisi at Namuzzi village, Ssisa sub-county in Wakiso on Friday, Besigye when he said that the Bible he believes in prescribed seventy as the life expectancy. Dr. Besigye, a former ally of President Yoweri Musevei is currently aged 66.

    “I have four years to continue with this struggle,” KB (as a section of his supporters call him is reported by the URN to have said. He said that during the remaining period, he would commit his entire effort to fight until freedom is achieved.

    Besigye turns 70 in four years.

    He, however, criticizes those who do not believe in an age limit in the performance of given functions, adding that the age limit was a biblical prescription.

    Earlier on, he described as futile efforts by the opposition in Uganda to dislodge the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) from power using the ballot. He said that the same NRM is suffocating political parties and as such, will never allow those parties to freely organize.

    He said he had listened to the Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LOP) Mathias Nsamba Mpuuga outlining the legislative agenda for 2023. Besigye said the year 2026 would not be a magical year even if the agreed joint opposition candidate wins because Museveni is the Electoral Commission” and the “courts in case of electoral litigation.”

    Besigye said the late Patrick Musisi who died in 2005 still lives because of the struggle he started, the struggle for freedom still continues through the people he mentored. He said Musisi worked for the unity of the opposition to struggle for that freedom and the conditions he was militating against still obtain as critical opposition is denied space and assembly.

    He also noted the rampant illegal arrests and abductions, all of which he said needed Ugandans working together to make a new beginning and a transition before they can think of political ideologies and colors.

    In attendance was a host of current and former MPs, politicians, and religious and cultural leaders who attended the ceremony. MPs included Muwanga Kivumbi (Butambala), Dr Lulume Bayiga (Buikwe South), Joseph Sewungu (Kalungu West), Robert Ssekitoleeko (Bamunanika), Betty Ethel Naluyima (Woman – Wakiso) and Asumani Basaalirwa (Bugiri).

    Other politicians included former MPs Ibrahim Kasozi, Salam Musumba, Latiff Ssebaggala, and Paul Mwiru.

    Sadam Gayira, President of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) said the NRM was a tree already eaten by ants and that the opposition only needed to push in a common direction or else that tree hits the house and animals.

    Dr. Bayiga said that the late Musisi generously invested in them as budding politicians in the Uganda Young Democrats-UYD.

    Samuel Lubega Mukaku, said the opposition was not making any gains when he sees an opposition party recruiting from a fellow opposition party.

    While the opposition continues to wail, the NRM senior supporters including the Vice President Jessica Alupo are already canvassing for support for Museveni ahead of the 2026 polls.

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    NATIONAL

    Otafiire Should Be In Prison – Besigye Stings Internal Affairs Minister, Reveals How Muhoozi/M7 Are Duping Ugandans…

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    Minister Kahinda Otafiire (L) and Dr. Kizza Besigye

    Four-time Presidential candidate,  Dr. Kizza Besigye has taken a jibe at Internal Affairs Minister Kahinda Otafiire, Chief Justice Owiny Dollo, President Yoweri Museveni and his son Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

    While appearing on NBS’ Morning Breeze on Monday morning, Dr. Besigye revealed that from the end of last year when they talked about the failure to stop the current crisis and how it must be dealt with, they have seen the escalation of the violation of Human Rights.

    “The drone phenomenon came back plus arresting people and others disappearing. This is state terror that has been escalating from that time,” he said.

    Besigye adduced that this armed violence in the country may be from people who can’t survive and are fighting for their survival adding that he doesn’t rule out a rebellion but rather a possibility considering the political situation in the country.

    “What is most likely, however, is that this armed violence is state inspired. I am increasingly inclined to believe that the violence we are seeing is State-inspired to create some kind of emergency.”

    He contended, “There is no doubt about the existence of gross Human Rights abuses. Security people have been shown on camera crashing our people.

    “Have those who crashed people ever been arraigned in any court? Who is protecting them? The Otafiires of this world. Otafiire saying what he is saying is the utmost abuse of the intelligence of Ugandans.

    “There has been a lot of talk about the war in Ukraine, which has pushed the economic crisis further, but the crisis in Uganda started before the war in Ukraine. ”

    The four-time presidential candidate propounded that the crisis is intensifying every day, and that this leads to other things like labour externalization and insecurity because of the desperate situation in the country.

    He added that political action is not just defined by what political parties are doing but it is the population that determines the political mood.

    “Otafiire’s right place should be in prison. He is the Minister in charge of Internal Affairs. He has seen what has happened because of his police officers. Didn’t he see Kakwenza?”

    He maintained that Otafiire has never paraded anyone who tortured Kakwenza Rukirabashaija or anyone under his watch.

    He asserted, “All political actors in the opposition united and agreed that electoral processes will not free Uganda. That came as a result of the experiences during the by-elections we had.

    “As time has gone on, it has become increasingly clear that the purpose of Muhoozi doing what he has done and coming when he did, is related to the political crisis in the country.

    “Muhoozi increasingly has now presented himself as two things. A younger generation and saying he represents something new, not the NRM.

    “They want to package a message that will attract the young people to him, then, at the right time, tell the people, “we are not ready, let’s support my father for another term.

    “That’s why he (Muhoozi) is rightly called a ‘standby generator’ by some groups of people.”

    He also disclosed that Muhoozi and Mr. Museveni are the same. They represent exactly what Ugandans should end.

    “Our position is clear. We want a transition from gun rule to popular rule. We have laid out what needs to be done in the transition. We need a new consensus.”

    He intimated that Muhoozi is simply responding to the tone they have set, he is not setting the tone adding that he can’t dismiss Muhoozi because all power belongs to their family.

    “The Chief Justice Owiny-Dollo will put on his wigs but with no power at all. Parliament is a joke, it has nothing, and that’s why we need a new consensus that will develop new institutions that will give people power.”

    Besigye divulged that Muhoozi is the overall boss of the military, not Mbadi and that if one brought Mbadi anywhere in the country, no one will identify him, everybody knows Muhoozi and Saleh.

    “You see the Vice President representing the First Lady, a minister! This is what the country must end.”

     

    By Kalamira Hope

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